TTD
CommsTrade Desk (The)
Price Chart
Market Data
Financials
XBRL · SEC EDGAR2016–2025(10yr)| Metric | FY 2016 | FY 2017 | FY 2018 | FY 2019 | FY 2020 | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025Latest | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $202.9M | $308.2M | $477.3M | $661.1M | $836.0M | $1.2B | $1.6B | $1.9B | $2.4B | $2.9B | +18.5% |
| Gross Profit | $163.1M | $242.0M | $363.2M | $504.9M | $657.2M | $974.9M | $1.3B | $1.6B | $2.0B | $2.3B | +15.4% |
| Gross Margin | 80.3% | 78.5% | 76.1% | 76.4% | 78.6% | 81.5% | 82.2% | 81.2% | 80.7% | 78.6% | -2.1pp |
| Operating Income | $57.5M | $69.4M | $107.3M | $112.2M | $144.2M | $124.8M | $113.7M | $200.5M | $427.2M | $589.3M | +38.0% |
| Operating Margin | 28.3% | 22.5% | 22.5% | 17.0% | 17.2% | 10.4% | 7.2% | 10.3% | 17.5% | 20.3% | +2.9pp |
| Net Income | $20.5M | $50.8M | $88.1M | $108.3M | $242.3M | $137.8M | $53.4M | $178.9M | $393.1M | $443.3M | +12.8% |
| Net Margin | 10.1% | 16.5% | 18.5% | 16.4% | 29.0% | 11.5% | 3.4% | 9.2% | 16.1% | 15.3% | -0.8pp |
| Free Cash Flow | $68.1M | $21.1M | $66.8M | $24.5M | $331.0M | $323.7M | $464.6M | $551.5M | $641.2M | $795.7M | +24.1% |
| FCF Margin | 33.6% | 6.9% | 14.0% | 3.7% | 39.6% | 27.1% | 29.4% | 28.3% | 26.2% | 27.5% | +1.2pp |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-1.46 | $1.15 | $1.92 | $2.27 | $4.95 | $0.28 | $0.11 | $0.36 | $0.78 | $0.90 | +15.4% |
1. THE BIG PICTURE
Trade Desk’s primary value proposition is its structural independence in an industry riddled with conflicts of interest. By refusing to own media or sell its own ad inventory, it positions itself as a pure advocate for the buyer, a strategy that has yielded the highest gross and net margins among its peers. This "Switzerland" status is the foundation of its growth, allowing it to ingest sensitive client data that advertisers are unwilling to share with competitors like Google.
2. WHERE THE RISKS HIT HARDEST
Trade Desk’s "buy-side focus" is threatened by its dependency on inventory suppliers who are also direct competitors. If these suppliers, such as Google, restrict access to their ecosystems, Trade Desk’s "omnichannel access" becomes a bottleneck rather than a strength (10-K Item 1A). Furthermore, its high-margin profile is vulnerable to extreme client concentration; if just two major advertising holding companies—which together represent a significant portion of gross billings—reduce their spend, Trade Desk (The)’s revenue growth would likely stall (10-K Item 1A). Finally, Trade Desk (The)’s technological edge is under fire from evolving privacy signals; the restriction of third-party cookies by browsers threatens the very "decisioning" power that Trade Desk claims as a competitive advantage.
3. WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY TOGETHER
While Trade Desk maintains the highest gross margin in its peer group at 78.4%, its revenue growth of 18.5% is beginning to show signs of normalization compared to the hyper-growth of peers like TKO (XBRL). The 10.6% short interest suggests that a segment of the market remains skeptical of Trade Desk’s ability to navigate the "post-cookie" era, despite management’s push for the Unified ID 2.0 framework (Yahoo Finance). Trade Desk (The) is aggressively using its 27.5% FCFFCFFree Cash Flow — cash left after paying for operations and capital investments; what the company can actually spend, save, or return to shareholders margin to support its share price, returning 7.7% of its market cap via buybacks in the most recent period—the second-highest yield among its peers (XBRL). This heavy capital return suggests management sees more value in retiring shares than in further massive R&DR&DResearch & Development — spending on creating new products or technologies spikes beyond the current Kokai rollout.
4. IS IT WORTH IT AT THIS PRICE?
At 11.6x forward earnings, Trade Desk trades at a significant discount to the peer median of 21.7x. The market is currently pricing in a long-term growth rate of just 2.4% (CAPM analysis). This appears low for a company delivering 18.5% revenue growth and leading its sector in net margins at 13.1%. However, this discount is likely a reflection of the regulatory "privacy tax"—the ongoing litigation in California and the threat of GDPR compliance costs that could compress those industry-leading margins (10-K Item 1A). If growth were to slow to the market-implied 2.5%, the current multiple would represent fair value; however, given Trade Desk (The)'s track record of 18.5% growth, the stock is attractively valued for those who believe Unified ID 2.0 can successfully replace third-party cookies.
5. WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VIEW?
- Cautious if the FCFFCFFree Cash Flow — cash left after paying for operations and capital investments; what the company can actually spend, save, or return to shareholders margin (currently 27.5%) begins to converge with the lower margins of traditional media peers like OMC (2.1%), signaling that Trade Desk is losing its software-scale advantage.
- Constructive if first-quarter 2026 revenue exceeds the $678 million guidance, proving that the Kokai platform upgrade is accelerating client adoption despite the loss of traditional tracking identifiers (8-K).
6. BOTTOM LINE
Structural Advantage: A conflict-free, buy-side-only business model that creates high switching costs through deep API integration and a proprietary identity framework (UID2). Bottom Line: Trade Desk is a high-margin growth engine currently priced as if its expansion is nearly over, making it a compelling bet on the future of programmatic advertising.
1. Top 5 Material Risks
- Client Concentration and Retention: Two holding companies would have each represented more than 10% of gross billings for 2025 if relationships were aggregated at the holding company level. The loss of these relationships or a material reduction in spend could significantly reduce revenue growth.
- Dependency on Advertising Channels: Trade Desk (The) is primarily dependent on CTV, video, mobile, and display advertising. A decrease in the use of these channels or an inability to expand into emerging channels could harm growth prospects.
- Inventory Access and Competition: Trade Desk (The) competes with some of its largest inventory suppliers, such as Google. If these suppliers limit access to their inventory, Trade Desk (The) may be unable to place advertisements or find alternative sources with comparable traffic patterns.
- Privacy and Data Regulation: Trade Desk (The) faces increasing regulatory scrutiny and litigation, including suits filed in March 2025 in the Northern District of California, regarding data collection and privacy practices. Compliance with evolving laws like the GDPR and various U.S. state privacy acts requires significant time, resources, and expense.
- Technological Evolution and Privacy Signals: The restriction of third-party cookies and device identifiers by browsers and operating systems—such as Apple’s IDFA requirements and Google’s deprecation of mobile identifiers—threatens Trade Desk (The)'s ability to uniquely identify users, which is critical to the platform's value proposition.
2. Company-Specific Risks
- Sequential Liability: Many contracts with advertising agencies stipulate that if an advertiser does not pay the agency, the agency is not liable to Trade Desk (The), forcing Trade Desk (The) to seek payment solely from the advertiser.
- Human Error in Platform Usage: Because the platform is self-service, human error in inputting daily or overall campaign caps can lead to significant overspending, for which Trade Desk (The) remains responsible to inventory providers.
- Dual Class Voting Structure: Holders of Class B common stock possess ten votes per share compared to one vote for Class A, concentrating control among directors and executive officers and limiting the influence of other stockholders.
- Reliance on Key Personnel: Trade Desk (The)’s future success depends on the continuing efforts of executive officers, including founder and CEO Jeff T. Green, none of whom have employment agreements for a specific term.
3. Regulatory/Legal Risks
- FTC Enforcement: The FTC uses its authority under Section 5 of the FTC Act to investigate companies engaging in online tracking and has recently targeted data brokers and companies processing sensitive health-related data.
- GDPR and UK GDPR: Trade Desk (The) is subject to supervision by data protection authorities in the EEA and the U.K., where penalties for breaches can reach the greater of €20 million/£17.5 million or 4% of total worldwide annual turnover.
- State Privacy Laws: Laws such as Washington’s My Health, My Data Act and similar legislation in Virginia include private rights of action, increasing the risk of litigation from plaintiffs’ attorneys.
- Political Advertising Regulation: Trade Desk (The) is subject to rapidly evolving federal and state laws regarding political advertising, which impose varying transparency and disclosure requirements.
4. Financial Impact Map
Client Concentration → Revenue → A material reduction in use by a major client could significantly reduce revenue growth rates. Inventory Access → Cost of Revenue → If material terms of supplier relationships change unfavorably, Trade Desk (The)’s business and financial condition would be negatively impacted. Privacy Compliance → Operating Expenses → Adapting to evolving privacy obligations requires significant time, resources, and expense, which may increase operating costs. Credit Risk/Sequential Liability → Accounts Receivable/Allowance for Credit Losses → If Trade Desk (The) is unable to collect from clients, it may incur write-offs for credit loss or reductions to revenue. Share Repurchase Program → Cash and Cash Equivalents → Repurchases diminish cash reserves available to fund working capital, capital expenditures, and strategic acquisitions.
Recent Filings
| Form | Filed | Period |
|---|---|---|
| 10-K | Feb 2026 | Dec 2025 |
| 8-K | Feb 2026 | — |
| 10-Q | Nov 2025 | Sep 2025 |
AI-extracted key facts from press releases and SEC filings. Significance 1–10.
The Trade Desk integrates with Pacvue and Skai, partners with DramaBox for omnichannel reach
- ▸Integrated programmatic campaigns with Pacvue and Skai commerce media platforms
- ▸Became first DSP partner for vertical short drama platform DramaBox
- ▸Aims to unify retail media, search, and programmatic ad workflows
- ▸Projects $4.3B revenue and $823.2M earnings by 2028
- ▸Requires 17.1% annual revenue growth to meet long-term targets
The Trade Desk Q4 revenue $846.8M +14.3% YoY, misses Q1 guidance expectations
- ▸TTD Q4 revenue $846.8M, +14.3% YoY, beat estimates by 0.6%
- ▸TTD Q1 revenue and EBITDA guidance missed analyst expectations
- ▸TTD shares down 9.1% following earnings report
- ▸PUBM Q4 revenue $80.05M, -6.4% YoY, beat estimates by 6.2%
- ▸DV Q4 revenue $205.6M, +7.9% YoY, missed estimates by 1.5%
The Trade Desk appoints Reddit CFO Drew Vollero to board of directors
- ▸Appointed Reddit CFO Drew Vollero to board of directors
- ▸Disclosed temporary non-compliance with Nasdaq committee independence rules
- ▸Projected 2028 revenue of $4.3 billion and earnings of $823.2 million
- ▸Non-compliance notice described as procedural rather than thesis-changing
- ▸Board reshuffle follows resignation of previous director
The Trade Desk shares slide on sluggish revenue guidance and increased competitive intensity
- ▸Management issued sluggish revenue guidance citing secular growth concerns
- ▸Amazon's aggressive pricing tactics increasing industry competitive intensity
- ▸Stock price closed at $22.01 on March 30, 2026
- ▸Shares declined 10.10% over the past month
- ▸52-week share price decline of 60.64%
The Trade Desk Q4 revenue $847M +14% YoY, adjusted EPS $0.59
- ▸Q4 revenue $847M, +14% YoY, beating estimates by 0.6%
- ▸Adjusted EPS $0.59, in-line with consensus estimates
- ▸Adjusted EBITDA $400M, representing 47% margin
- ▸Free cash flow $282M with $1.3B cash and zero debt
- ▸Repurchased $423M shares in Q4; buyback authorization increased to $500M
The Trade Desk Q1 revenue guidance $678M misses estimates, growth decelerates to 10%
- ▸Q1 2026 revenue guidance $678M, 1.5% below analyst estimates
- ▸2025 full-year revenue $2.9B, +18% YoY
- ▸Brent crude oil price surge to $100-$120 impacting ad budget visibility
- ▸Amazon DSP ad revenue +23% YoY in Q4 2025, outpacing TTD growth
- ▸Management cited visibility challenges in CPG and automotive ad spending
The Trade Desk CTV and AI-driven measurement tools drive programmatic advertising growth
- ▸Video and CTV represent approximately 50% of total business revenue
- ▸Kokai AI platform adoption reaches nearly all client base
- ▸OpenPath supply-chain initiative maintains 4.5% publisher fee structure
- ▸Programmatic CTV activity accelerated throughout 2025
- ▸Audience Unlimited launched to increase third-party and retail data utilization