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XBRL · SEC EDGAR2016–2025(10yr)| Metric | FY 2016 | FY 2017 | FY 2018 | FY 2019 | FY 2020 | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025Latest | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.0B | $2.1B | $2.4B | $2.6B | $2.8B | $3.0B | $2.5B | $2.7B | $2.9B | $3.1B | +6.6% |
| Gross Profit | $1.3B | $1.4B | $1.5B | $1.6B | $1.8B | $1.9B | $1.7B | $1.8B | $2.0B | $2.1B | +8.4% |
| Gross Margin | 64.2% | 63.5% | 63.0% | 62.5% | 64.3% | 64.7% | 67.0% | 67.3% | 68.7% | 69.9% | +1.1pp |
| Operating Income | $767.6M | $801.2M | $834.1M | $696.9M | $1.0B | $1.0B | $1.4B | $1.1B | $1.3B | $1.3B | +7.2% |
| Operating Margin | 38.5% | 37.3% | 34.8% | 26.7% | 37.3% | 33.4% | 56.3% | 42.2% | 43.5% | 43.7% | +0.2pp |
| Net Income | $591.2M | $555.1M | $598.7M | $449.9M | $712.7M | $666.2M | $953.9M | $614.6M | $958.2M | $908.3M | -5.2% |
| Net Margin | 29.6% | 25.9% | 25.0% | 17.3% | 25.6% | 22.2% | 38.2% | 22.9% | 33.3% | 29.6% | -3.7pp |
| Free Cash Flow | $389.6M | $560.0M | $703.4M | $739.5M | $821.4M | $887.3M | $784.3M | $830.7M | $920.1M | $1.2B | +29.5% |
| FCF Margin | 19.5% | 26.1% | 29.4% | 28.4% | 29.5% | 29.6% | 31.4% | 31.0% | 31.9% | 38.8% | +6.9pp |
| EPS (Diluted) | $3.45 | $3.29 | $3.56 | $2.70 | $4.31 | $4.08 | $6.00 | $4.17 | $6.71 | $6.48 | -3.4% |
1. THE BIG PICTURE
Verisk Analytics functions as the central nervous system of the U.S. insurance market, using its status as a licensed statistical agent to embed its data into the mandatory reporting and underwriting workflows of nearly every major carrier. This regulatory integration creates a formidable moat that generates peer-leading profit margins, yet it also leaves Verisk Analytics’s growth tethered to a single, mature industry.
2. WHERE THE RISKS HIT HARDEST
The "embedded nature" of Verisk’s solutions is directly threatened by its heavy revenue concentration, as 70% of total revenue is derived from U.S. P&C primary insurers (10-K Item 1A). If this specific sector faces a downturn or shifts away from Verisk’s standard policy language, Verisk Analytics has little geographic or industry diversification to soften the blow. Furthermore, Verisk’s "Proprietary Data Assets" are vulnerable to "Data Access and Supplier Dependency"; because Verisk relies on external data it does not own, any loss of access or shift toward exclusive competitor contracts would break the predictive models that underpin its competitive advantage (10-K Item 1A).
3. WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY TOGETHER
Verisk is a margin leader but a growth laggard. It boasts the highest operating margin (44.4%) and FCFFCFFree Cash Flow — cash left after paying for operations and capital investments; what the company can actually spend, save, or return to shareholders margin (38.3%) in its peer group, yet its 6.6% revenue growth ranks 5th out of 6 peers (XBRL). This suggests a business that is expertly harvesting cash from a dominant position rather than one rapidly capturing new territory. The recent 0.7% decline in Claims revenue—attributed to low weather activity—highlights that even a subscription-heavy model remains sensitive to external environmental factors (8-K). With short interest at 4.0% of the float, a segment of the market appears to be betting that Verisk’s high valuation may not be sustainable if growth continues to trail peers like Rollins or Copart.
4. IS IT WORTH IT AT THIS PRICE?
At 23.7x Forward P/EP/EPrice-to-Earnings ratio — share price divided by annual earnings per share; how much investors pay per dollar of profit. Higher P/E = higher growth expectations, Verisk trades at a 9% premium to the peer median of 21.7x (Yahoo Finance). According to the CAPM analysis, the market is pricing in 4.7% long-term growth. This valuation is currently supported by Verisk’s superior capital efficiency; it leads its peer group in both FCFFCFFree Cash Flow — cash left after paying for operations and capital investments; what the company can actually spend, save, or return to shareholders margin (38.3%) and buyback yield (2.5%). However, the sensitivity analysis suggests that if growth were to slow to a GDP-pace of 2.5%, the justified multiple would fall to 15.7x. For the current price to be right, Verisk must successfully use its "Reimagine" modernization program to convert its high margins into faster organic growth, particularly in the life and specialty insurance segments.
5. WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VIEW?
- Cautious if organic constant currency (OCC) revenue growth fails to meet the 2026 target of $3.19 billion, suggesting that AI-driven product modernizations are not driving the expected "predictable growth."
- Constructive if the Claims segment shows a sustained recovery in property estimating solutions, proving that the recent 0.7% revenue dip was a temporary weather-related anomaly rather than a structural loss of market share (8-K).
- Cautious if net debt ($1.6B) increases significantly to fund acquisitions, as management has explicitly flagged the risk of overpayment and integration failures (10-K Item 1A).
6. BOTTOM LINE
Structural Advantage: High switching costs and regulatory barriers derived from its role as a licensed statistical agent and its proprietary database of industry-standard policy language.
Bottom Line: Verisk is a premium-priced cash machine that offers unmatched stability and margins, but its lack of industry diversification makes it a play on the insurance sector's health rather than a broad data-growth story.
1. Top 5 Material Risks
- Revenue Concentration: Approximately 70% of total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025, was derived from solutions provided to U.S. P&C primary insurers, making Verisk Analytics highly sensitive to industry downturns or reduced acceptance of its solutions (10-K Item 1A).
- Data Access and Supplier Dependency: Verisk Analytics relies on external data sources that it does not own; the loss of access to these repositories, or the imposition of exclusive contracts by competitors, could prevent Verisk Analytics from providing its solutions (10-K Item 1A).
- Acquisition and Integration Risks: Verisk Analytics’s growth strategy involves acquisitions that carry risks of overpayment, failure to integrate operations, and the potential for significant impairment charges to goodwill and intangible assets (10-K Item 1A).
- Technological and Cybersecurity Threats: As a global company, Verisk Analytics is subject to cyber-attacks and security breaches that could result in the loss of customers, liability, and increased operating expenses to remediate vulnerabilities (10-K Item 1A).
- Model Accuracy and Reliability: Verisk Analytics uses analytical models for underwriting and risk assessment; if these models contain inaccuracies or fail to account for new variables like climate change, it could lead to loss of business and damage to Verisk Analytics's reputation (10-K Item 1A).
2. Company-Specific Risks
- Antitrust Settlement Constraints: Verisk Analytics is subject to a 1995 antitrust settlement agreement that imposes specific constraints on insurer involvement in Verisk Analytics’s governance and business operations (10-K Item 1A).
- ERP System Dependency: Verisk Analytics has transitioned to a new, company-wide single ERP system; any design or implementation deficiencies could disrupt operations and divert resources from other business functions (10-K Item 1A).
- AI-Driven Disruption: The emergence of AI models could lead to the duplication of Verisk Analytics’ products or reduce their relevance if proprietary data is fed into third-party AI ecosystems without Verisk Analytics's knowledge (10-K Item 1A).
- Shareholder Concentration: As of December 31, 2025, the ten largest shareholders owned 39.3% of Verisk Analytics’s common stock, creating the risk that significant sales by these holders could cause the stock price to decline (10-K Item 1A).
3. Regulatory/Legal Risks
- Data Privacy Compliance: Verisk Analytics is subject to various laws including the Fair Credit Reporting Act, the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, and the EU’s General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR); failure to comply with these or future privacy regulations could impede Verisk Analytics's ability to conduct business between the U.S. and the E.U. (10-K Item 1A).
- Government Contract Termination: The U.S. government may terminate contracts for convenience, which could result in the loss of revenue and potential inability to recover costs if insufficient funds have been appropriated (10-K Item 1A).
- Tax Audits and Global Minimum Tax: Verisk Analytics is subject to tax audits in multiple jurisdictions and faces potential impacts from the OECD’s Pillar Two model rules for a 15% global minimum tax (10-K Item 1A).
4. Financial Impact Map
Revenue Concentration → Total Revenue → Approximately 70% of revenue is tied to U.S. P&C primary insurers. Acquisition and Integration Risks → Goodwill and Intangible Assets → Potential for impairment charges and write-offs if acquisitions fail to realize expected benefits. Cybersecurity Threats → Operating Expenses → Increased costs to investigate and remediate information security vulnerabilities and incidents. Increased Indebtedness → Financial Condition → Incurring substantial debt to finance acquisitions increases vulnerability to macroeconomic weakness and limits financing flexibility. Government Contract Termination → Revenue and Operating Income → Termination for convenience or default could lead to loss of contract value and potential liability for procurement costs.
Recent Filings
| Form | Filed | Period |
|---|---|---|
| 8-K | Feb 2026 | — |
| 10-K | Feb 2026 | Dec 2025 |
| 10-Q | Oct 2025 | Sep 2025 |
| 14A | Apr 2025 | — |
AI-extracted key facts from press releases and SEC filings. Significance 1–10.
Verisk Q4 EPS $1.82 beats by 13.8%, revenue $778.8M rises 5.9% YoY
- ▸Q4 adjusted EPS $1.82, beating consensus by 13.8% and up 13% YoY
- ▸Total revenue $778.8M, up 5.9% YoY
- ▸Underwriting and Rating revenue $556M, up 8.7% YoY
- ▸FY26 revenue guidance $3.19B–$3.24B; adjusted EPS guidance $7.45–$7.75
- ▸Repurchased $223.8M in shares and paid $62.5M in dividends during Q4
Verisk Analytics Q4 revenue $779M +5.9%, shares retreat 11% on lowered profit guidance
- ▸Q4 revenue $779M, up 5.9% YoY
- ▸Lowered forward profit guidance citing AccuLynx acquisition and moderating organic growth
- ▸Organic growth impacted by lower storm activity and reduced government contract
- ▸Shares retreated 11% during the fourth quarter
- ▸Hedge fund ownership declined to 50 portfolios from 55 in previous quarter