VST
UtilitiesVistra Corp.
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XBRL · SEC EDGAR2017–2025(9yr)| Metric | FY 2017 | FY 2018 | FY 2019 | FY 2020 | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025Latest | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.4B | $9.1B | $11.8B | $11.4B | $12.1B | $13.7B | $14.8B | $17.2B | $17.7B | +3.0% |
| Operating Income | $198.0M | $491.0M | $2.0B | $1.5B | -$1.5B | -$1.2B | $2.7B | $4.1B | $1.9B | -53.3% |
| Operating Margin | 3.6% | 5.4% | 16.9% | 13.3% | -12.5% | -8.6% | 18.0% | 23.7% | 10.7% | -12.9pp |
| Net Income | -$254.0M | -$54.0M | $928.0M | $636.0M | -$1.3B | -$1.2B | $1.5B | $2.7B | $944.0M | -64.5% |
| Net Margin | -4.7% | -0.6% | 7.9% | 5.6% | -10.5% | -8.9% | 10.1% | 15.4% | 5.3% | -10.1pp |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.3B | $1.1B | $2.2B | $2.1B | -$1.2B | -$816.0M | $3.8B | $2.5B | $1.3B | -47.0% |
| FCF Margin | 23.4% | 12.0% | 18.8% | 18.2% | -10.3% | -5.9% | 25.6% | 14.4% | 7.4% | -7.0pp |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-0.59 | $-0.11 | $1.86 | $1.30 | $-2.69 | $-3.26 | $3.58 | $7.00 | $2.18 | -68.9% |
1. THE BIG PICTURE
Vistra is essentially a massive internal hedge fund that pairs 5 million retail customers with a 44,000 MW generation fleet to smooth out the wild swings of the wholesale power market. This "integrated model" is the engine for its $4.02 billion in operating income, but the strategy is currently being squeezed by a $20.7 billion debt pile and a capital-intensive pivot toward battery storage and solar power.
2. WHERE THE RISKS HIT HARDEST
The "fundamental competitive advantage" of the integrated model is threatened by wholesale market volatility because Vistra operates primarily as a merchant generator without long-term sales agreements, leaving cash flows exposed to unpredictable fuel cost spikes (10-K Item 1A). Furthermore, the strategic priority of "disciplined capital allocation" is directly challenged by $20.7 billion in total indebtedness; this debt load restricts the liquidity needed to fund the "Strategic Energy Transition" into battery and solar projects while simultaneously maintaining share repurchases (10-K Item 1A). Finally, the operational complexity of the ERCOT market—which is susceptible to price spikes from intermittent wind and solar—creates a vulnerability where transient operational events can force Vistra to procure power at high costs to meet its retail obligations.
3. WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY TOGETHER
While management characterized 2025 as a "transformational year" due to the Energy Harbor and Lotus Infrastructure acquisitions, Vistra’s 3.0% revenue growth lags significantly behind peers like Dominion (+14.2%) and AEP (+10.9%) (XBRL). However, the numbers reveal that Vistra is far more efficient at turning revenue into cash than its larger peers; its 8.9% FCFFCFFree Cash Flow — cash left after paying for operations and capital investments; what the company can actually spend, save, or return to shareholders margin is superior to Constellation (3.1%) and stands in stark contrast to the negative FCFFCFFree Cash Flow — cash left after paying for operations and capital investments; what the company can actually spend, save, or return to shareholders margins at Exelon and Entergy. Market sentiment appears cautious but not distressed, with short interest at 3.5% of the float (Yahoo Finance). This caution likely stems from the 9.4x net leverage ratio, which remains high even as Vistra Corp. returns 2.1% of its market cap to shareholders via buybacks.
4. IS IT WORTH IT AT THIS PRICE?
At a 15.1x Forward P/EP/EPrice-to-Earnings ratio — share price divided by annual earnings per share; how much investors pay per dollar of profit. Higher P/E = higher growth expectations, Vistra trades at a modest discount to the peer median of 19.3x. The market is currently pricing in a 5.8% long-term growth rate (CAPM analysis). This is an aggressive expectation given the current 3.0% revenue growth rate, suggesting the market is betting heavily on the "higher base profitability" management expects from large load offtake opportunities and the Energy Harbor integration. The 2026 Adjusted EBITDAEBITDAEarnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & Amortization — a rough proxy for operating cash profit, stripping out accounting adjustments guidance of $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion supports this optimistic view, as it implies a significant step up from current levels (8-K). However, investors should note that if growth slows to a more utility-like 5.0%, the justified multiple would fall to 13.4x, representing roughly 11% downside from current levels (CAPM analysis).
5. WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VIEW?
- Constructive if net debt falls significantly below the current $16.2 billion level, which would lower the 9.4x leverage ratio and free up cash for the solar and battery transition.
- Cautious if 2026 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDAEBITDAEarnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & Amortization — a rough proxy for operating cash profit, stripping out accounting adjustments misses the $6.8 billion floor, signaling that wholesale price volatility or nuclear fuel supply disruptions are eroding the benefits of the integrated model.
6. BOTTOM LINE
Structural Advantage: An integrated retail-to-wholesale platform that captures margins across the entire power value chain while providing an internal hedge against commodity volatility.
Bottom Line: Vistra is a high-leverage bet on operational efficiency and superior cash flow conversion that currently trades at a modest discount to its slower-growing utility peers.
1. Top 5 Material Risks
- Wholesale Market Volatility: Vistra Corp. operates primarily as a merchant generator without long-term power sales agreements, leaving its revenues and cash flows directly exposed to unpredictable fluctuations in wholesale power prices and fuel costs (natural gas, coal, fuel oil, and nuclear fuel).
- Fuel Supply and Infrastructure: Disruptions in fuel delivery infrastructure—including mines, rail lines, and pipelines—or the failure of contractual counterparties can force Vistra Corp. to procure fuel at higher-than-planned costs or pay damages for failing to deliver power, directly impacting operating results.
- Debt and Liquidity Constraints: With approximately $20.7 billion in total indebtedness as of December 31, 2025, Vistra Corp. faces risks related to interest rate exposure, covenant compliance, and the potential inability to access capital markets on favorable terms, which could restrict its ability to fund operations or share repurchases.
- Environmental Compliance Costs: Vistra Corp. faces significant and potentially increasing costs to comply with federal and state environmental regulations, including those related to air emissions and Coal Combustion Residuals (CCR), which may necessitate capital-intensive upgrades or lead to the premature retirement of generation units.
- Operational and Nuclear Risks: The ownership and operation of nuclear facilities involve risks of unscheduled outages, regulatory penalties, and significant decommissioning obligations; if trust fund investments are insufficient, Vistra Corp. may be required to provide additional financial guarantees or contributions.
2. Company-Specific Risks
- Cogentrix Transactions: Vistra Corp. may fail to consummate the pending Cogentrix Transactions or realize anticipated synergies, potentially resulting in significant transaction costs, termination fees of up to $149,999,999, and dilution of existing stockholders.
- Vistra Zero Portfolio: The growth of the Vistra Zero portfolio (solar, battery ESS, and renewables) is subject to substantial capital requirements and interconnection delays, which could lead to project cancellations and the write-off of capitalized development costs.
- Retail Competition: Vistra Corp.’s retail business faces intense competition from other Retail Electric Providers (REPs) and incumbent utilities, where high customer acquisition costs and the risk of customer switching can erode margins.
- Tax Attribute Limitations: An "ownership change" under IRC §382 could limit Vistra Corp.’s ability to utilize net operating losses (NOLs) and other tax attributes to offset future taxable income, potentially increasing its tax liabilities.
3. Regulatory/Legal Risks
- Market Design Changes: Legislative and regulatory initiatives in markets like ERCOT and PJM—such as potential out-of-market reliability payments or changes to capacity market rules—could fundamentally alter market fundamentals and negatively impact Vistra Corp.’s financial condition.
- Environmental Litigation: Vistra Corp. is subject to ongoing legal challenges regarding greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and environmental rules; adverse outcomes or the imposition of new, more stringent regulations could require significant additional capital expenditures.
- Mining Oversight: Luminant’s lignite mining operations are subject to oversight by the Railroad Commission of Texas (RCT); any revocation of mining permits or changes in reclamation requirements could force the closure of generation facilities.
- Cybersecurity and Data Privacy: As a critical infrastructure provider, Vistra Corp. faces risks from cyberattacks that could disrupt operations or compromise sensitive customer data, potentially leading to significant regulatory penalties and reputational damage.
4. Financial Impact Map
- Wholesale Market Volatility → Operating Cash Flows → Revenues and profitability are subject to volatility due to the lack of long-term power sales agreements for the majority of facilities.
- Fuel Supply and Infrastructure → Cost of Revenues / Operating Expenses → Disruptions require procurement of alternative fuel or power at higher-than-planned costs.
- Debt and Liquidity Constraints → Interest Expense / Cash and Cash Equivalents → High debt levels require significant cash flow for principal and interest payments, reducing funds available for dividends or capital expenditures.
- Environmental Compliance Costs → Capital Expenditures / Asset Retirement Obligations (ARO) → Compliance with CCR and emission rules requires significant capital investment and potential write-downs of generation assets.
- Nuclear Decommissioning → Asset Retirement Obligations (ARO) / Trust Fund Assets → Insufficient funding in Nuclear Decommissioning Trusts (NDT) may require additional parent company guarantees or cash contributions.
Recent Filings
| Form | Filed | Period |
|---|---|---|
| 10-K | Feb 2026 | Dec 2025 |
| 8-K | Feb 2026 | — |
| 10-Q | Nov 2025 | Sep 2025 |
| 14A | Mar 2025 | — |
AI-extracted key facts from press releases and SEC filings. Significance 1–10.
Vistra prices $4B senior notes offering following investment-grade credit rating upgrades
- ▸Priced $4.0B private offering of senior notes for debt refinancing
- ▸Achieved investment-grade ratings from S&P and Fitch
- ▸Fitch upgraded long-term issuer default rating to BBB- in March
- ▸Secured long-term power purchase agreements with Amazon and Meta
- ▸Acquired Cogentrix Energy in January, adding 5,500 MW of gas-fired capacity
Vistra Receives Investment-Grade Credit Ratings From Fitch and S&P
- ▸Vistra upgraded to investment-grade status by Fitch Ratings and S&P
- ▸Upgrade expected to improve financing costs and access to capital
- ▸Current share price $150.33, trading 36% below analyst price target
- ▸Interest payments currently not well covered by earnings
- ▸Shares down 13.5% over the past month
Vistra Analyst Price Targets Adjusted Following Meta Data Center Contracts and Gas Repricing
- ▸Scotiabank raised price target to $293 citing long-term Meta power contracts
- ▸BMO Capital raised price target to $244 following 2,600MW nuclear capacity deal
- ▸Q4 2025 share repurchases totaled 1.38 million shares for $248.52 million
- ▸Vistra filed FERC protest against PJM Interconnection over co-located facility rules
- ▸Morgan Stanley and BofA lowered price targets citing sector-wide utility valuation adjustments
Vistra Corp. 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Guidance Set at $6.8B–$7.6B
- ▸2026 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA guidance: $6.8B–$7.6B
- ▸2026 Adjusted free cash flow guidance: $3.925B–$4.725B
- ▸Forward 12-month P/E ratio: 15.92X
- ▸Nearly all 2026 production capacity currently hedged
- ▸Price target set at $155 based on 16.72X forward earnings
Vistra Targets $10B Cumulative Cash Flow Through 2027 via Expanded Nuclear Hedging
- ▸Targeting over $10B in cumulative cash flow by end of 2027
- ▸Nearly all 2026 production and majority of 2027-2028 generation hedged
- ▸3.8 gigawatts of 20-year nuclear PPAs secured with investment-grade buyers
- ▸2026 EPS projected to grow 65.59% YoY per consensus estimates
- ▸Approximately 50% of Adjusted EBITDA derived from stable wholesale and retail sources
Vistra Corp. receives investment grade credit rating upgrades from Fitch and S&P
- ▸Fitch upgraded long-term issuer default rating to investment grade
- ▸S&P Global Ratings upgraded issuer rating in December 2025
- ▸Current share price $164.33 with 1-year total return of 32.76%
- ▸Market narrative estimates fair value at $233 per share
- ▸DCF-based fair value estimate calculated at $373.91 per share
Oracle Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates, Raises FY27 Revenue Guidance to $90B
- ▸Raised FY27 revenue guidance to $90B from previous $85B forecast
- ▸Quarterly backlog grew $29B sequentially
- ▸Earnings results topped analyst quarterly estimates
- ▸Demand driven by broad enterprise AI adoption rather than single contracts
- ▸Results boosted semiconductor sector including NVDA, AMD, and MU