WM

Industrials

Waste Management

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Market Data

Financials

XBRL · SEC EDGAR

2007–2025(19yr)

Revenue

Net Income

Free CF

Metric	FY 2007	FY 2008	FY 2009	FY 2010	FY 2011	FY 2012	FY 2013	FY 2014	FY 2015	FY 2016	FY 2017	FY 2018	FY 2019	FY 2020	FY 2021	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025Latest	YoY
Revenue	$13.3B	$13.4B	$11.8B	$12.5B	$13.4B	$13.6B	$14.0B	$14.0B	$13.0B	$13.6B	$14.5B	$14.9B	$15.5B	$15.2B	$17.9B	$19.7B	$20.4B	$22.1B	$25.2B	+14.2%
Gross Profit	—	—	$5.2B	$5.7B	$12.1B	$4.8B	$4.9B	$5.0B	$4.7B	$5.1B	$5.5B	$5.7B	$6.0B	$5.9B	$6.8B	$7.4B	$7.8B	$8.7B	$10.2B	+17.4%
Gross Margin	—	—	43.9%	45.2%	90.4%	34.9%	34.8%	35.7%	36.5%	37.6%	37.7%	38.0%	38.6%	38.6%	38.0%	37.6%	38.3%	39.3%	40.4%	+1.1pp
Operating Income	$2.3B	$2.2B	$1.9B	$2.1B	$2.0B	$1.9B	$1.1B	$2.3B	$2.0B	$2.3B	$2.6B	$2.8B	$2.7B	$2.4B	$3.0B	$3.4B	$3.6B	$4.1B	$4.3B	+6.0%
Operating Margin	16.9%	16.7%	16.0%	16.9%	15.2%	13.6%	7.7%	16.4%	15.8%	16.9%	18.2%	18.7%	17.5%	16.0%	16.5%	17.1%	17.5%	18.4%	17.1%	-1.3pp
Net Income	$1.2B	$1.1B	$994.0M	$953.0M	$961.0M	$817.0M	$98.0M	$1.3B	$753.0M	$1.2B	$1.9B	$1.9B	$1.7B	$1.5B	$1.8B	$2.2B	$2.3B	$2.7B	$2.7B	-1.4%
Net Margin	8.7%	8.1%	8.4%	7.6%	7.2%	6.0%	0.7%	9.3%	5.8%	8.7%	13.5%	12.9%	10.8%	9.8%	10.1%	11.4%	11.3%	12.4%	10.7%	-1.7pp
Free Cash Flow	$1.2B	$1.4B	$1.2B	$1.2B	$1.1B	$785.0M	$1.2B	—	$1.3B	$1.7B	$1.6B	$1.9B	$2.1B	$1.8B	$2.3B	$1.7B	$1.8B	$2.2B	$2.8B	+30.4%
FCF Margin	9.2%	10.1%	10.0%	9.4%	8.6%	5.8%	8.5%	—	10.0%	12.2%	11.1%	12.7%	13.3%	11.9%	12.8%	8.8%	8.9%	9.8%	11.2%	+1.4pp
EPS (Diluted)	$2.23	$2.19	$2.01	$1.98	$2.04	$1.76	$0.21	$2.79	$1.65	$2.65	$4.41	$4.45	$3.91	$3.52	$4.29	$5.39	$5.66	$6.81	$6.70	-1.6%

Total Debt$22.2B

Cash & Equiv.$201.0M

Net Debt$22.0B

4 min read

1. THE BIG PICTURE

Waste Management is no longer just a disposal company; it is a toll-collector on the physical economy that is aggressively "internalizing" its costs. By owning the largest network of landfills and transfer stations in North America, Waste Management captures fees at every stage of the waste lifecycle while using its own sites to protect profit margins that peers with fewer assets must pay away to third parties (10-K Item 1).

2. WHERE THE RISKS HIT HARDEST

Asset Dominance vs. Permitting: Waste Management’s core strength—its network of 257 landfills—is threatened by "public opposition or land scarcity" (10-K Item 1A). If Waste Management cannot obtain new permits, it will be forced to use more expensive third-party disposal sites, directly undermining the "internalization" strategy that currently drives its superior operating margins.
Labor Costs vs. Automation: With over 60,000 employees, Waste Management is highly vulnerable to wage inflation and unionization. Management is attempting to mitigate this through "technology-led" investments in automation, but any failure to improve labor productivity would leave Waste Management’s high-fixed-cost structure exposed during economic downturns.
Cash Flow vs. Acquisition Integration: The $3.5 billion promised to shareholders in 2026 through dividends and buybacks depends on the successful integration of Stericycle (8-K). Any "failure to realize anticipated cost synergies" or "billing and collection delays" in the Healthcare Solutions segment could jeopardize the free cash flow needed to fund these returns and reduce Waste Management's $22.5 billion debt load.

3. WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY TOGETHER

Waste Management’s revenue growth of 14.2% (TTMTTMTrailing Twelve Months — the most recent full year of financial data, updated on a rolling basis each quarter) significantly outpaces its closest direct competitor, Republic Services (+3.3%), yet its free cash flow (FCFFCFFree Cash Flow — cash left after paying for operations and capital investments; what the company can actually spend, save, or return to shareholders) margin of 10.5% ranks only 4th among its peer group. This suggests that while Waste Management is successfully buying scale through the Stericycle acquisition, it has not yet fully converted that size into the cash efficiency seen at peers like Cintas (15.0%).

The 2026 guidance for $3.75 billion to $3.85 billion in FCFFCFFree Cash Flow — cash left after paying for operations and capital investments; what the company can actually spend, save, or return to shareholders represents a 29.4% increase, signaling that management expects recent investments in automation and landfill gas-to-energy to finally outpace heavy capital expenditures (8-K). With short interest low at 1.3% of the float, market sentiment remains steady despite Waste Management carrying $22.5 billion in net debt—a figure significantly higher than all listed peers.

4. IS IT WORTH IT AT THIS PRICE?

At 25.3x Forward P/EP/EPrice-to-Earnings ratio — share price divided by annual earnings per share; how much investors pay per dollar of profit. Higher P/E = higher growth expectations, Waste Management trades at a 19% discount to the peer median of 31.3x. This discount is justified by Waste Management's high leverage (8.8x net debt to FCFFCFFree Cash Flow — cash left after paying for operations and capital investments; what the company can actually spend, save, or return to shareholders) and the operational complexity of the Stericycle integration.

At this multiple, the market is pricing in approximately 3.5% long-term growth (CAPM analysis). This appears achievable, as Waste Management’s actual revenue growth was 7.1% in the most recent quarter, and management is guiding for 5.2% growth in 2026 (8-K). If growth were to slow to a GDP-pace of 2.5%, the justified multiple would drop to 20.3x. However, the 1.4% dividend yield—the highest in the peer group—supports the current valuation by offering superior immediate income compared to faster-growing peers like Quanta Services (PWR).

5. WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VIEW?

Cautious if the leverage ratio fails to return to the 2.5x to 3.0x target range by late 2026, indicating that integration costs are eating into cash reserves.
Constructive if Adjusted Operating EBITDAEBITDAEarnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & Amortization — a rough proxy for operating cash profit, stripping out accounting adjustments margins exceed the 31.0% guidance ceiling, proving that "technology-enabled infrastructure" is structurally reducing the cost to serve.
Cautious if "emerging contaminants" like PFAS lead to accelerated capital expenditures for environmental remediation beyond current accruals (10-K Item 1A).

6. BOTTOM LINE

Structural Advantage: An irreplaceable network of permit-protected landfills and transfer stations that creates a massive barrier to entry and allows for industry-leading cost internalization.

Bottom Line: Waste Management is a defensive powerhouse successfully pivoting into specialized healthcare waste and renewable energy, making its current valuation discount an attractive entry point for those willing to overlook temporary integration risks.

Source: Synthesis · LLM Analysis

4 min read

1. Top 5 Material Risks

Acquisition Integration: The Stericycle acquisition (Healthcare Solutions segment) introduces risks including billing and collection delays, customer loss, and the failure to realize anticipated cost synergies, which could negatively impact future financial results and the stock price.
Regulatory Compliance and Remediation: Waste Management faces significant financial obligations for landfill closure, post-closure, and environmental remediation; expenditures may be accelerated or exceed accruals due to regulatory changes or emerging contaminants like PFAS.
Operational and Safety Hazards: Providing waste services involves risks of truck accidents, equipment failure, and waste mass instability; incidents could result in substantial liabilities exceeding insurance coverage, property damage, and reputational harm.
Permitting and Capacity: The inability to obtain or maintain permits for landfills and transfer stations due to public opposition or land scarcity can force the use of more expensive disposal alternatives, decreasing revenue and increasing operating costs.
Labor and Wage Pressures: As an employer of over 60,000 individuals, Waste Management faces risks from labor shortages, union organizing efforts, and minimum wage increases, which can lead to higher operating expenses and potential work stoppages.

2. Company-Specific Risks

Natural Gas Fleet Dependency: Waste Management has invested heavily in a natural gas truck fleet and fueling infrastructure; a reduction in the cost differential between natural gas and diesel, or regulatory mandates to transition to electric vehicles, could impair these assets and require significant additional capital investment.
Renewable Energy Volatility: The Renewable Energy segment is sensitive to the volatile market for RINs (Renewable Identification Numbers) and changes in federal renewable fuel policies, which can cause substantial fluctuations in revenue and earnings.
Commodity Price Exposure: Revenue is directly impacted by the market prices for recyclables; for example, a decline in market prices in 2025 resulted in a year-over-year revenue decrease of $166 million, while an increase in 2024 resulted in a $245 million revenue increase.
Healthcare Solutions Market Dynamics: The Healthcare Solutions segment is subject to downward pricing pressure due to hospital network consolidation and cost-cutting initiatives by healthcare providers, which could adversely affect financial results.

3. Regulatory/Legal Risks

Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR): New EPR regulations may shift the financial burden of post-use product life cycles to producers, creating uncertainty for long-term planning and potentially reducing the volume of waste streams managed by Waste Management.
Anti-Bribery Compliance: Operations in foreign countries subject Waste Management to the U.S. Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA); failure to comply could result in significant fines, penalties, and reputational damage.
Cybersecurity and Data Privacy: Waste Management processes sensitive personal and confidential information; failure to comply with evolving global data protection laws or a significant cybersecurity incident could lead to regulatory enforcement, private litigation, and material business disruption.
Tax Legislation: Changes in U.S. federal, state, or international tax laws, or adverse interpretations of current tax positions by the IRS, could increase future tax liabilities and reduce cash flows.

4. Financial Impact Map

Stericycle Integration → Net Income / Stock Price → Waste Management cannot guarantee that benefits and cost synergies will be achieved within anticipated time frames, and integration expenses may exceed expectations.

Environmental Remediation (PFAS/Landfills) → Operating Costs / Capital Expenditures → Expenditures could be accelerated or materially exceed accruals due to regulatory changes or new information regarding emerging contaminants.

Operational Failures/Safety Incidents → Operating Expenses / Insurance Liabilities → Substantial liabilities in excess of applicable insurance could adversely affect results of operations and cash flows.

Permitting/Capacity Constraints → Revenue / Operating Costs → Diminishing disposal capacity requires transport by rail or alternative disposal solutions, increasing operating costs and decreasing revenue.

Economic/Inflationary Pressures → Income from Operations Margins → A significant portion of revenue is tied to price escalation indices with lookback provisions, creating a timing lag in recovering increased costs during periods of rapid inflation.

Source: 10-K Item 1A · LLM Analysis

Recent Filings

Form	Filed	Period
10-K	Feb 2026	Dec 2025
8-K	Jan 2026	—
10-Q	Oct 2025	Sep 2025
14A	Apr 2025	—