WMT
DefensiveWalmart
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XBRL · SEC EDGAR2008–2025(18yr)| Metric | FY 2008 | FY 2009 | FY 2010 | FY 2011 | FY 2012 | FY 2013 | FY 2014 | FY 2015 | FY 2016 | FY 2017 | FY 2018 | FY 2019 | FY 2020 | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025Latest | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $377.0B | $404.4B | $408.2B | $421.8B | $446.9B | $469.2B | $476.3B | $485.7B | $482.1B | $485.9B | $500.3B | $514.4B | $524.0B | $559.2B | $572.8B | $611.3B | $648.1B | $681.0B | +5.1% |
| Gross Profit | $92.9B | $100.3B | $103.6B | $106.6B | $111.8B | $116.7B | $118.2B | $120.6B | $121.1B | $124.6B | $126.9B | $129.1B | $129.4B | $138.8B | $143.8B | $147.6B | $158.0B | $169.2B | +7.1% |
| Gross Margin | 24.6% | 24.8% | 25.4% | 25.3% | 25.0% | 24.9% | 24.8% | 24.8% | 25.1% | 25.6% | 25.4% | 25.1% | 24.7% | 24.8% | 25.1% | 24.1% | 24.4% | 24.9% | +0.5pp |
| Operating Income | $22.0B | $22.8B | $23.9B | $25.5B | $26.6B | $27.8B | $26.9B | $27.1B | $24.1B | $22.8B | $20.4B | $22.0B | $20.6B | $22.5B | $25.9B | $20.4B | $27.0B | $29.3B | +8.6% |
| Operating Margin | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.3% | +0.1pp |
| Net Income | $12.7B | $13.4B | $14.3B | $16.4B | $15.7B | $17.0B | $16.0B | $16.4B | $14.7B | $13.6B | $9.9B | $6.7B | $14.9B | $13.5B | $13.7B | $11.7B | $15.5B | $19.4B | +25.3% |
| Net Margin | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.9% | +0.5pp |
| Free Cash Flow | $5.7B | $11.6B | $14.1B | $10.9B | $10.7B | $12.7B | $10.1B | $16.4B | $15.9B | $20.9B | $18.3B | $17.4B | $14.6B | $25.8B | $11.1B | $12.0B | $15.1B | $12.7B | -16.3% |
| FCF Margin | 1.5% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 1.9% | -0.5pp |
| EPS (Diluted) | $3.13 | $3.39 | $3.70 | $4.47 | $4.52 | $5.02 | $4.88 | $5.05 | $4.57 | $4.38 | $3.28 | $2.26 | $5.19 | $4.75 | $4.87 | $4.27 | $1.91 | $2.41 | +26.2% |
1. THE BIG PICTURE
Walmart is successfully leveraging its massive physical footprint of 10,750 stores to subsidize a transition into a technology-powered platform. By converting stores into fulfillment hubs and scaling high-margin services like advertising (+37%) and memberships (+15.1%), Walmart is attempting to decouple its profit growth from the thin margins of traditional grocery retail (8-K).
2. WHERE THE RISKS HIT HARDEST
Walmart’s "Omni-channel Integration" strength is directly threatened by "Macro-economic Volatility" because the heavy capital investment in 164 U.S. automated distribution facilities requires high consumer throughput to be efficient (Business). If inflation or higher energy costs reduce disposable income, the fixed costs of this digital infrastructure could lead to impairment charges on long-lived assets (Risks). Furthermore, the "Private Brand Portfolio," a key competitive differentiator, is vulnerable to "Supply Chain and Sourcing" risks; any geopolitical instability or trade barriers affecting global suppliers would spike the cost of these goods, undermining Walmart’s "Everyday Low Price" (EDLP) promise (Competitive Position, Risks).
3. WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY TOGETHER
The financial data reveals a company outgrowing its traditional peers but struggling with cash efficiency. Walmart’s 5.1% revenue growth outpaces stalwarts like Procter & Gamble (+0.3%) and PepsiCo (+2.3%), yet its Free Cash Flow (FCFFCFFree Cash Flow — cash left after paying for operations and capital investments; what the company can actually spend, save, or return to shareholders) margin of 1.3% is the lowest in its peer group (Peer Benchmarking). This suggests that while the digital ecosystem is scaling—evidenced by 24% eCommerce growth—the transition remains highly capital-intensive. The 10.8% growth in operating income suggests that "Everyday Low Cost" (EDLC) initiatives are beginning to take hold, though the 4.0% operating margin remains structurally lower than diversified consumer goods peers like Coca-Cola (30.1%) (XBRL, Peer Benchmarking). Short interest is low at 1.3% of the float, indicating that the market generally accepts management’s narrative of a "technology-powered" future (Supplemental Signals).
4. IS IT WORTH IT AT THIS PRICE?
At a 38.0x Forward P/EP/EPrice-to-Earnings ratio — share price divided by annual earnings per share; how much investors pay per dollar of profit. Higher P/E = higher growth expectations, Walmart trades at a 69% premium to the peer median of 22.5x (Peer Benchmarking). This valuation prices in approximately 5.5% long-term growth (CAPM analysis). While Walmart’s most recent quarterly revenue growth of 5.6% aligns with this expectation, the valuation is aggressive for a retailer with a 3.2% net margin. For this price to be justified, Walmart must maintain its current trajectory of double-digit growth in advertising and membership fees to offset the lower margins of its core retail business. According to the provided sensitivity analysis, if long-term growth were to slow to a GDP-pace of 2.5%, the justified multiple would fall to 17.8x, representing significant downside (CAPM analysis).
5. WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VIEW?
- Cautious if eCommerce growth falls below 20%, as this would indicate that the omni-channel strategy is failing to offset the high costs of digital investment (Risks).
- Constructive if the global advertising business (Walmart Connect) continues to grow at 35% or higher, proving that Walmart can successfully pivot into high-margin service revenue (8-K).
- Cautious if the "Adjusted Operating Income" growth for fiscal year 2027 falls below the guided 6.0% to 8.0% range, suggesting that macro-economic pressures are overwhelming Walmart's cost-control efforts (8-K).
6. BOTTOM LINE
Structural Advantage: A massive global scale and a physical footprint of over 10,750 stores that serve as a dual-purpose retail destination and a high-speed fulfillment network for a growing digital ecosystem.
Bottom Line: Walmart is a premium-priced digital transformation story that is successfully capturing market share, but it must maintain its rapid services growth to justify its current valuation.
1. Top 5 Material Risks
- Omni-channel Execution: Walmart’s strategy relies on heavy capital expenditure in eCommerce, AI, and automation. Failure to deliver a seamless experience or to offset the cost of these investments could lead to impairment charges on intangible or long-lived assets and reduced net sales.
- Consumer Demand Prediction: Inaccurate forecasting of consumer tastes and spending patterns can lead to inventory spoilage, markdowns, and lower sales. Price transparency and the speed of shipping are critical, and failure to compete effectively in these areas erodes market share.
- Competitive Pressures: Walmart competes across multiple segments—including retail, health and wellness, and financial services—against well-funded rivals. Consolidation in the retail industry may result in competitors with improved financial resources and market penetration, threatening Walmart’s financial performance.
- Macro-economic Volatility: Factors such as inflation, higher interest rates, and increased costs for electricity and petroleum products can reduce consumer disposable income and increase Walmart’s cost of sales and administrative expenses.
- Supply Chain and Sourcing: Global sourcing is vital to Walmart’s financial performance. Political instability, labor shortages, and trade restrictions in countries where suppliers operate can disrupt the availability of goods and increase the cost of merchandise.
2. Company-Specific Risks
- Marketplace Liability: Walmart faces potential direct liability for third-party marketplace transactions, including intellectual property and product liability claims, which could impede eCommerce growth.
- Pharmacy Reimbursement: A large majority of retail pharmacy net sales depend on third-party payers and pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs). Changes in reimbursement rates, drug formularies, or exclusion from preferred networks could significantly impact net sales and gross margins.
- Fintech Ventures: Strategic alliances like the ONE fintech venture may not generate anticipated sales or profitability, and investments in these areas could adversely affect financial performance.
- VIZIO Compliance: Following the acquisition of VIZIO, Walmart is subject to the "VIZIO Order," which mandates specific data collection and usage obligations until 2037; failure to design or implement adequate controls could result in regulatory penalties.
3. Regulatory/Legal Risks
- Data Privacy and Cybersecurity: Walmart is subject to complex global data laws, including the GDPR, CCPA, and China’s PIPL. Noncompliance with PIPL can result in fines up to 5% of the previous year’s revenue generated in China, while GDPR violations can reach the greater of €20 million or 4% of global annual turnover.
- Opioid Litigation: Walmart is a defendant in numerous opioid-related lawsuits, including multidistrict litigation and a 2020 U.S. Department of Justice lawsuit, for which Walmart cannot reasonably estimate potential losses.
- Flipkart and India Operations: Walmart faces ongoing investigations by India’s Directorate of Enforcement and the Competition Commission of India regarding foreign investment rules and alleged competition law violations, which could lead to monetary penalties or share ownership restrictions.
- COFECE Penalty: In Mexico, the Comisión Federal de Competencia Económica (COFECE) imposed a monetary penalty on a Walmex subsidiary for monopolistic practices related to supplier contribution negotiations.
4. Financial Impact Map
Omni-channel Strategy Execution → Net Sales and Operating Income → Short-term operating losses from investments and potential impairment charges to long-lived assets.
Consumer Demand Prediction → Inventory and Gross Margin → Incorrect calculations result in spoilage and inventory markdowns.
Macro-economic Factors → Cost of Sales and SG&ASG&ASelling, General & Administrative expenses — operating costs not directly tied to making the product: salaries, marketing, rent, etc. → Higher transportation, labor, and energy costs increase operating expenses.
Pharmacy Reimbursement → Net Sales and Gross Margin → Reductions in third-party reimbursement rates and changes in drug mix directly impact pharmacy profitability.
Cybersecurity Incidents → Operating Results and Liquidity → Potential for regulatory fines, remediation expenses, and loss of sales due to system disruptions.
Recent Filings
| Form | Filed | Period |
|---|---|---|
| 8-K | Feb 2026 | — |
| 10-Q | Dec 2025 | Oct 2025 |
| 14A | Apr 2025 | — |
| 10-K | Mar 2025 | Jan 2025 |
AI-extracted key facts from press releases and SEC filings. Significance 1–10.
Walmart Unit Walmex Plans $2.5B Capital Investment in Mexico for 2026
- ▸Walmex 2026 capital investment $2.5B, +10% YoY
- ▸42% of budget allocated to store remodeling and omnichannel upgrades
- ▸25% of budget dedicated to opening 1,500 new locations through 2029
- ▸24% of budget for supply chain and automated distribution centers
- ▸Launched new advertising and content-commerce integrations with VIZIO
Walmart Q4 U.S. Comparable Sales +4.6% Driven by Grocery Strength and E-commerce Growth
- ▸U.S. comparable sales +4.6% YoY
- ▸Transaction volume +2.6%, average ticket +2%
- ▸Grocery e-commerce sales grew in double digits
- ▸Grocery inflation +0.6%, down 70 bps from Q3
- ▸Market share gains noted across all income groups, including households earning over $100,000
Walmart Mexico expands Vusion partnership to deploy EdgeSense across Express and Supercenter stores
- ▸Deploying 1.7 million electronic shelf labels and 180,000 smart rails in Walmart Express
- ▸EdgeSense platform rollout to cover all Walmart Express stores by year-end
- ▸Planned expansion of connected store technology into Supercenter network
- ▸Pilot program launching in Bodega format to evaluate further suitability
- ▸Platform integrates AI, computer vision, and real-time data to streamline store operations
SKYX Q4 revenue $25M, FY2025 revenue $92M +7% YoY, announces NVIDIA AI collaboration
- ▸Q4 revenue $25M, marking 8 consecutive quarters of YoY growth
- ▸FY2025 revenue $92M vs $86M in 2024
- ▸FY2025 gross profit $28M, up 13% YoY
- ▸Operating cash burn reduced by $5M (27%) to $13M in 2025
- ▸Announced collaboration with NVIDIA AI ecosystem for smart home projects
Walmart authorizes $30B share repurchase program amid 27% U.S. eCommerce growth
- ▸Authorized new $30B share repurchase program
- ▸Reported $190.66B in revenue
- ▸U.S. eCommerce revenue grew 27% YoY
- ▸Integrating AI tools and Vizio to drive digital growth
- ▸1-year total shareholder return reached 45.70%
Target Launches 'Circle Deal Days' Promotion to Drive Loyalty and Comparable Sales Growth
- ▸Circle Deal Days promotion runs March 25-27
- ▸Event features discounts of 40% or more on select items
- ▸New loyalty strategy targets growth in Target Circle and Circle 360 memberships
- ▸Comparable store sales declined in 11 of the last 13 quarters
- ▸Target stock up 18% YTD through March 23 under new CEO leadership
Walmart Q4 Global Advertising Revenue Jumps 37%, Total Revenue Up 5.6%
- ▸Global advertising revenue grew 37% in Q4, including VIZIO
- ▸Walmart Connect US sales increased 41% in Q4
- ▸Full-year global advertising revenue rose 46% to nearly $6.4B
- ▸Q4 total revenue +5.6%, operating income +10.8% YoY
- ▸Advertising and membership fees accounted for one-third of Q4 operating income
Flipkart Group CFO Sriram Venkataraman to step down ahead of planned India IPO
- ▸Group CFO Sriram Venkataraman to step down from Walmart-owned Flipkart
- ▸Marketplace CFO Ravi Iyer to oversee broader finance organization temporarily
- ▸Nishant Verman rejoins as SVP for corporate development and partnerships
- ▸Flipkart preparing for potential India IPO following holding company shift
- ▸Flipkart valued at approximately $37 billion as of 2024
Lifeway Foods FY25 net sales $212.5M +13.7%, net income jumps 54% YoY
- ▸Full-year net sales $212.5M, up 13.7% YoY
- ▸Gross profit margin 27.4%, expansion of 140 basis points
- ▸Net income increased 54% for the full year
- ▸Expanded Farmers cheese distribution to 2,000 Walmart locations
- ▸SG&A expenses rose to 19.6% of net sales due to marketing investments
Walmart International Q4 Net Sales $34.6B +7.5%, Operating Income Jumps 36% to $1.9B
- ▸International net sales $34.6B, up 7.5% YoY constant currency
- ▸International e-commerce sales grew 17% YoY
- ▸International operating income $1.9B, up 36% YoY
- ▸E-commerce accounts for 28% of international net sales
- ▸FY sales and EPS projected to grow 4.7% and 9.5% respectively