WYNN
CyclicalWynn Resorts
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Market Data
Financials
XBRL · SEC EDGAR2008–2025(18yr)| Metric | FY 2008 | FY 2009 | FY 2010 | FY 2011 | FY 2012 | FY 2013 | FY 2014 | FY 2015 | FY 2016 | FY 2017 | FY 2018 | FY 2019 | FY 2020 | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025Latest | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.0B | $3.0B | $4.2B | $5.3B | $5.2B | $5.6B | $5.4B | $4.1B | $4.3B | $6.1B | $6.7B | $6.6B | $2.1B | $3.8B | $3.8B | $6.5B | $7.1B | $7.1B | +0.1% |
| Operating Income | $312.1M | $235.0M | $625.3M | $1.0B | $1.0B | $1.3B | $1.3B | $658.8M | $521.7M | $1.1B | $735.5M | $878.3M | -$1.2B | -$394.5M | -$100.7M | $840.2M | $1.1B | $1.1B | -1.3% |
| Operating Margin | 10.4% | 7.7% | 14.9% | 19.1% | 20.0% | 23.0% | 23.3% | 16.2% | 12.0% | 17.4% | 10.9% | 13.3% | -58.8% | -10.5% | -2.7% | 12.9% | 15.9% | 15.7% | -0.2pp |
| Net Income | $210.5M | $20.7M | $160.1M | $613.4M | $502.0M | $728.7M | $731.6M | $195.3M | $242.0M | $747.2M | $572.4M | $123.0M | -$2.1B | -$755.8M | -$423.9M | $730.0M | $501.1M | $327.3M | -34.7% |
| Net Margin | 7.0% | 0.7% | 3.8% | 11.6% | 9.7% | 13.0% | 13.5% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 12.3% | 8.5% | 1.9% | -98.6% | -20.1% | -11.3% | 11.2% | 7.0% | 4.6% | -2.4pp |
| Free Cash Flow | -$810.0M | $53.0M | $773.5M | $1.3B | $944.7M | $1.2B | -$28.7M | -$1.3B | -$255.4M | $941.1M | -$514.5M | -$162.2M | -$1.4B | -$513.2M | -$371.4M | $805.1M | $1.0B | $692.2M | -31.2% |
| FCF Margin | -27.1% | 1.7% | 18.5% | 25.3% | 18.3% | 20.8% | -0.5% | -33.1% | -5.9% | 15.5% | -7.7% | -2.5% | -65.0% | -13.6% | -9.9% | 12.3% | 14.1% | 9.7% | -4.4pp |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.92 | $0.17 | $1.29 | $4.88 | $4.82 | $7.17 | $7.18 | $1.92 | $2.38 | $7.28 | $5.35 | $1.15 | $-19.37 | $-6.64 | $-3.73 | $6.32 | $4.35 | $3.14 | -27.8% |
1. THE BIG PICTURE
Wynn Resorts is a luxury operator in a period of transition, trading its historical dominance in Macau for a speculative future in the Middle East. While it maintains a reputation as the world’s highest-ranked hotel company, its financial engine is stalling; revenue growth has essentially flatlined at 0.1% while its peers capitalize on a broader travel recovery. Wynn Resorts is now a massive bet on the successful 2027 opening of Wynn Al Marjan Island, a project that has already consumed $914.2 million in capital (8-K).
2. WHERE THE RISKS HIT HARDEST
Wynn Resorts’s primary strength—its "singular focus" on the premium, high-net-worth customer—is directly threatened by its extreme macroeconomic sensitivity. Because the business relies on unsecured credit extended to a limited number of "premium" players (10-K Item 1A), a downturn in the Chinese or U.S. economies doesn't just reduce room bookings; it risks a cascade of bad debt. This vulnerability is magnified by Wynn Resorts's $10.63 billion in outstanding debt. The "artistry and championship craftsmanship" management cites as a competitive advantage requires constant, heavy capital reinvestment, yet Wynn Resorts’s 16.1x net debt-to-FCFFCFFree Cash Flow — cash left after paying for operations and capital investments; what the company can actually spend, save, or return to shareholders ratio suggests that its ability to fund both high-end maintenance and new global developments is becoming increasingly constrained (CAPM analysis).
3. WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY TOGETHER
The financial data reveals a company that is losing ground to its peers in every efficiency metric. While Wynn Resorts maintains a respectable gross margin of 68.2%, its ability to convert that into bottom-line profit is the weakest in its peer group (XBRL). Its 2.8% net margin and 8.1% FCFFCFFree Cash Flow — cash left after paying for operations and capital investments; what the company can actually spend, save, or return to shareholders margin both rank last among a group that includes competitors like Royal Caribbean and Las Vegas Sands, which are generating margins in the double digits.
The most recent quarter highlights a worrying divergence: while Macau revenues grew, the U.S. operations in Las Vegas and Boston both saw revenue declines (8-K). This suggests that the post-pandemic surge in domestic gaming may have peaked, leaving Wynn Resorts dependent on the volatile VIP segment in Macau to carry the business until the UAE project opens. Investor skepticism is visible in the supplemental data; short interest stands at 6.7% of the float, indicating that a meaningful segment of the market is betting against the current recovery narrative.
4. IS IT WORTH IT AT THIS PRICE?
At a forward P/EP/EPrice-to-Earnings ratio — share price divided by annual earnings per share; how much investors pay per dollar of profit. Higher P/E = higher growth expectations of 17.2x, Wynn Resorts is priced exactly in line with the peer median. However, this "fair" valuation assumes Wynn Resorts can deliver 4.4% long-term growth (CAPM analysis). This is difficult to reconcile with a TTMTTMTrailing Twelve Months — the most recent full year of financial data, updated on a rolling basis each quarter revenue growth rate of just 0.1%, the lowest among all peers. While Wynn Resorts returns 4.6% of its market cap via buybacks—the second-highest yield in the group—this capital return strategy may be at odds with its massive $9.1 billion net debt position.
If growth slows to a GDP-paced 2.5%, the justified multiple would drop to 13.0x, representing roughly 25% downside. For the current price to be "right," investors must believe that the UAE expansion will not only open on time in 2027 but will also provide a structural step-change in margins that the current Macau and Vegas portfolios are failing to deliver.
5. WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VIEW?
- Constructive if the Las Vegas segment reverses its recent decline and achieves year-over-year revenue growth exceeding 5%, signaling that the luxury domestic market has not yet hit a ceiling.
- Cautious if Wynn Resorts’s life-to-date contributions to the Al Marjan joint venture exceed $1.2 billion before 2026, suggesting significant cost overruns in the UAE.
- Cautious if net margins remain below 5% for two consecutive quarters, indicating that Wynn Resorts’s luxury service model is becoming too expensive to maintain relative to the revenue it generates.
6. BOTTOM LINE
Structural Advantage: In-house design and development expertise that creates high-barrier-to-entry luxury assets capable of commanding premium room rates. Bottom Line: Wynn Resorts is a high-leverage gamble on a Middle Eastern expansion, currently hampered by stagnant growth and a debt-heavy balance sheet that offers no margin for error.
1. Top 5 Material Risks
- Macroeconomic Sensitivity: Wynn Resorts is highly sensitive to discretionary spending; economic downturns or recessions in the U.S. or the Macau region (PRC, Hong Kong, and Taiwan) directly reduce demand for luxury amenities and gaming.
- Regulatory Control: Gaming authorities hold broad powers to fine, suspend, or revoke licenses; failure to comply with these regulations or maintain suitability could force the forfeiture of assets and substantial expenditures.
- Geopolitical and Travel Disruptions: Geopolitical tensions, visa restrictions, and infectious disease outbreaks disrupt international travel, which is the primary source of revenue for Wynn Resorts’ properties.
- Concentration Risk: Wynn Resorts is entirely dependent on a limited number of resorts (Macau Operations, Las Vegas Operations, and Encore Boston Harbor) for all operating cash flow, leaving it more vulnerable to local disasters or market-specific downturns than more diversified competitors.
- Indebtedness: With $10.63 billion in total debt as of December 31, 2025, Wynn Resorts faces risks related to interest rate fluctuations, potential covenant defaults, and the inability to secure additional financing for future projects.
2. Company-Specific Risks
- Premium Customer Credit: A significant portion of table games revenue relies on a limited number of premium customers to whom Wynn Resorts extends unsecured credit; the inability to collect these receivables, particularly in jurisdictions that do not enforce gaming debts, directly impacts financial results.
- Co-investment Limitations: In projects like Wynn Al Marjan Island, where Wynn Resorts owns a 40% interest, Wynn Resorts lacks full control over strategic decisions and may be liable for a co-investor’s share of obligations or completion guarantees.
- Intellectual Property Challenges: The "Wynn" brand is a core asset, but because it is a surname, it requires constant defense to maintain "secondary meaning" status; failure to protect these trademarks or unauthorized use by fraudulent websites harms the brand.
- Labor Union Exposure: Some employees are represented by labor unions; failure to negotiate competitive collective bargaining agreements or the success of future organizing efforts could increase operating costs and disrupt resort operations.
3. Regulatory/Legal Risks
- Anti-Money Laundering and Anti-Corruption: Wynn Resorts is subject to the FCPA and various anti-money laundering laws; Wynn Resorts recently entered a non-prosecution agreement (NPA) involving a $130 million forfeiture related to past transactions.
- Macau Concession Risk: The Macau government may rescind the gaming concession without compensation for failures to perform obligations, including national security concerns or public interest, which would result in the loss of all gaming assets and equipment.
- Environmental Liability: As a property owner, Wynn Resorts faces joint and several liability for environmental cleanup costs, including identified contamination at sites in Everett, Massachusetts.
- Data Privacy: Wynn Resorts must comply with evolving global privacy laws like the GDPR; non-compliance or security breaches could result in fines of up to 4% of worldwide revenue.
4. Financial Impact Map
Macroeconomic Downturn → Gaming Revenues → Reduced discretionary spending from premium customers in Macau and the U.S. Regulatory License Revocation → Assets → Potential forfeiture of all casinos, gaming assets, and equipment in Macau without compensation. High Leverage → Cash Flow → Substantial portion of cash flow required for debt service, limiting funds for working capital and capital expenditures. Uncollectible Gaming Receivables → Gaming Revenues → Macau gaming tax is calculated on gross gaming revenue without deductions for uncollectible debts. Cybersecurity Breach → General and Administrative Expense → Significant investments required for system upgrades, third-party consultants, and potential legal fines.
Recent Filings
| Form | Filed | Period |
|---|---|---|
| 10-K | Mar 2026 | Dec 2025 |
| 8-K | Feb 2026 | — |
| 10-Q | Nov 2025 | Sep 2025 |
| 14A | Mar 2025 | — |
AI-extracted key facts from press releases and SEC filings. Significance 1–10.
Wynn Resorts Faces Legionnaires’ Disease Investigation Amidst Ongoing Operational Scrutiny
- ▸Health officials investigating Legionnaires’ disease cases linked to Las Vegas property
- ▸Company currently undertaking water system remediation efforts
- ▸Stock trading at $106.24, approximately 32% below analyst price targets
- ▸Fair value estimates diverge between $140.61 (analyst consensus) and $26.37 (DCF model)
- ▸Wynn Al Marjan Island launch cited as key future revenue catalyst
Wynn Resorts files shelf registration for 500,000 shares tied to ESOP
- ▸Filed shelf registration for 500,000 shares for Employee Stock Ownership Plan
- ▸Indicated value of shares approximately $48.3 million
- ▸Issuance intended for employee incentive alignment rather than immediate capital raise
- ▸Dilution expected to be gradual as awards are granted over time
- ▸Represents minor portion of total market capitalization
Wynn Resorts Q4 revenue $1.9B beats estimates, but EPS misses on Macau weakness
- ▸Q4 revenue $1.9B, +1.5% YoY, beating estimates by 1.1%
- ▸Adjusted EPS $1.17 missed analyst expectations
- ▸Adjusted EBITDA $466.9M fell short of Wall Street targets
- ▸Shares tumbled 6.6% on Feb 12 following earnings release
- ▸Stock trading below 50-day and 200-day moving averages
Wynn Resorts Resumes Construction on $5.1B Al Marjan Island Resort in UAE
- ▸Construction resumed on $5.1B Wynn Al Marjan Island resort in UAE
- ▸Project construction previously paused due to regional Middle East tensions
- ▸Stock trading at $98.79 with estimated fair value of $142.11
- ▸Shares down 19.4% year-to-date despite annual revenue and net income growth
- ▸Projected first-mover advantage in UAE market as key future growth catalyst