XOM
EnergyExxonMobil
Price Chart
Market Data
Financials
XBRL · SEC EDGAR2009–2025(17yr)| Metric | FY 2009 | FY 2010 | FY 2011 | FY 2012 | FY 2013 | FY 2014 | FY 2015 | FY 2016 | FY 2017 | FY 2018 | FY 2019 | FY 2020 | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025Latest | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $301.5B | $370.1B | $467.0B | $453.1B | $420.8B | $394.1B | $259.5B | $218.6B | $237.2B | $279.3B | $264.9B | $181.5B | $285.6B | $413.7B | $344.6B | $349.6B | $332.2B | -5.0% |
| Net Income | $19.3B | $30.5B | $41.1B | $44.9B | $32.6B | $32.5B | $16.1B | $7.8B | $19.7B | $20.8B | $14.3B | -$22.4B | $23.0B | $55.7B | $36.0B | $33.7B | $28.8B | -14.4% |
| Net Margin | 6.4% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 5.4% | -12.4% | 8.1% | 13.5% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 8.7% | -1.0pp |
| Free Cash Flow | $5.9B | $21.5B | $24.4B | $21.9B | — | — | $3.9B | $5.9B | $14.7B | $16.4B | $5.4B | -$2.6B | $36.1B | $58.4B | $33.5B | $30.7B | $23.6B | -23.1% |
| FCF Margin | 2.0% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.8% | — | — | 1.5% | 2.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 2.0% | -1.4% | 12.6% | 14.1% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 7.1% | -1.7pp |
| EPS (Diluted) | $3.98 | $6.22 | $8.42 | $9.70 | $7.37 | $7.60 | $3.85 | $1.88 | $4.63 | $4.88 | $3.36 | $-5.25 | $5.39 | $13.26 | $8.89 | $7.84 | $6.70 | -14.5% |
1. THE BIG PICTURE
ExxonMobil is a cash-generation giant currently in a defensive posture, prioritizing massive shareholder returns and long-term project execution over immediate revenue growth. While its margins are tightening, ExxonMobil is betting that its stable, long-tenured workforce and 8,000 active patents will allow it to "capture more value from every molecule" as it pivots toward lithium, hydrogen, and carbon capture (8-K, 10-K Item 1).
2. WHERE THE RISKS HIT HARDEST
ExxonMobil’s "long-standing commitment to proprietary technology" is threatened by evolving climate policy because government-imposed net-zero frameworks and greenhouse gas restrictions could make even patented hydrocarbon processes uncompetitive or prohibitively expensive to operate (10-K Item 1, Risks). Additionally, ExxonMobil’s "career-oriented approach to talent development"—boasting a 30-year average length of service—is a strength that could become a liability during broad economic downturns. If recessions impair cash flows, the capital-intensive nature of its projects may force difficult choices regarding the "meritocracy" and retention it views as a strategic differentiator (10-K Item 1, Risks).
3. WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY TOGETHER
Despite management's assertion that ExxonMobil is "fundamentally stronger," the financial data reveals a business under cyclical pressure. Revenue declined 5.0% over the last twelve months, and net margins compressed from 9.6% to 8.7% in the most recent fiscal year (XBRL, Peer Benchmarking). This margin pressure was evident in the most recent quarter, where earnings fell to $6.5 billion from $7.5 billion in the prior quarter, largely because the Upstream segment was hit by weaker crude prices and impairment-related items (8-K).
ExxonMobil is using its $51.97 billion in operating cash flow to aggressively shrink its share base, returning $20.27 billion via buybacks in 2025 (XBRL). This strategy offsets sluggish top-line growth; while the market prices in only 0.7% long-term growth, the share retirement program helps support an implied EPSEPSEarnings Per Share — the company's net profit divided by its share count; the most common per-share profitability metric growth rate of 4.0% (CAPM analysis). Sentiment remains neutral to slightly positive, as short interest is low at just 1.6% of the float.
4. IS IT WORTH IT AT THIS PRICE?
At 17.4x Forward P/EP/EPrice-to-Earnings ratio — share price divided by annual earnings per share; how much investors pay per dollar of profit. Higher P/E = higher growth expectations, ExxonMobil is priced exactly in line with the peer median (Yahoo Finance). This valuation appears fair but not discounted, given that ExxonMobil ranks 5th of 6 peers in revenue growth and 5th of 6 in net margin (Peer Benchmarking).
The market is pricing in ~0.7% long-term growth. This is a low bar that ExxonMobil can likely clear if it continues to bring major developments like the Yellowtail project in Guyana online ahead of schedule (8-K). However, if global growth slows and ExxonMobil’s growth rate drops to 0.5%, the justified multiple would fall to 16.9x (CAPM analysis). The primary reason to pay the current price is the 3.3% buyback yield, which is competitive but still ranks 4th among its closest peers (Peer Benchmarking).
5. WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS VIEW?
- Constructive if the Chemical Products segment—which reported a $281 million loss in the most recent quarter—returns to consistent profitability through improved industry margins (8-K).
- Cautious if the FCFFCFFree Cash Flow — cash left after paying for operations and capital investments; what the company can actually spend, save, or return to shareholders margin, which has already decreased from 8.8% to 7.1%, continues to contract, as this would eventually limit ExxonMobil’s ability to sustain $37.50 billion in annual shareholder distributions (XBRL).
6. BOTTOM LINE
Structural Advantage: Massive integrated scale supported by a stable, long-tenured workforce and a deep portfolio of 8,000 proprietary patents.
Bottom Line: ExxonMobil is a disciplined, cash-distributing giant that is fairly priced for a low-growth environment, though it currently lacks the margin efficiency of its most profitable peers.
1. Top 5 Material Risks
- Commodity Price Volatility: As a commodity business, ExxonMobil’s earnings are highly sensitive to price changes. Declines in oil and gas prices threaten the Upstream segment, while material price increases can adversely affect the Energy, Chemical, and Specialty Products segments.
- Economic Cycles: Demand for energy is tied to global economic prosperity. Recessions, geopolitical volatility, and trade disruptions impact the supply and demand balance, directly affecting ExxonMobil’s results.
- Climate Policy and Energy Transition: Governments are adopting net-zero frameworks and greenhouse gas restrictions. These policies may increase compliance costs, reduce demand for hydrocarbons, and make ExxonMobil’s products more expensive or less competitive.
- Operational and Project Execution: The long-term success of ExxonMobil’s Upstream, Product Solutions, and Low Carbon Solutions businesses depends on managing capital-intensive projects. Failure to bring resources online on budget or schedule, or inability to manage third-party costs, threatens project returns.
- Regulatory and Legal Exposure: ExxonMobil faces risks from changes in tax laws (including windfall profit or global minimum taxes), price controls, and litigation. Legal proceedings, including class actions or investigations, can result in unpredictable punitive damage awards.
2. Company-Specific Risks
- Low Carbon Solutions (LCS) Viability: The growth and returns of the LCS business unit depend on the development of stable government policies and the commercial-scale success of technologies like carbon capture and storage, hydrogen, and lithium.
- Cybersecurity Disruptions: ExxonMobil is a target for state-sponsored actors. A successful disruption could compromise proprietary data, damage physical assets, or cause environmental harm, leading to significant remediation costs and regulatory penalties.
- Joint Venture Dependency: For projects where ExxonMobil is not the operator, ExxonMobil relies on the management effectiveness of co-venturers, limiting its ability to control project outcomes.
- Reputational Capital: As an important corporate asset, ExxonMobil’s reputation is vulnerable to perceptions regarding its progress in the energy transition, which could hinder its ability to compete for new opportunities, obtain financing, or attract talent.
3. Regulatory/Legal Risks
- Taxation: Exposure to retroactive claims, punitive taxes on operations, and global minimum taxes.
- Environmental Compliance: Changes in laws affecting offshore drilling, water use, hydraulic fracturing, and the production or recycling of plastics.
- Disclosure Mandates: Potential adoption of regulations requiring disclosure of competitively sensitive commercial information or reliance on uncertain third-party emissions estimates.
- Litigation: Exposure to large punitive and non-economic damage awards in the United States and potential adoption of similar liability schemes in the European Union.
4. Financial Impact Map
Commodity Price Volatility → Earnings and Proved Reserves → Material adverse effect on Upstream segment results and reserve valuations. Economic Downturns → Cash Flows and Earnings → Direct adverse impact on results due to reduced demand for energy and petrochemicals. Greenhouse Gas Regulations → Compliance Costs and Investment Returns → Increased costs for monitoring/sequestering emissions and potential reduction in project returns. Project Execution Failures → Capital Expenditures and Operating Expenses → Potential for cost escalation, budget overruns, and unscheduled project downtime. Litigation and Investigations → Net Income → Potential for large, unpredictable punitive and non-economic damage awards and costs associated with enforcement proceedings.
Recent Filings
| Form | Filed | Period |
|---|---|---|
| 10-K | Feb 2026 | Dec 2025 |
| 8-K | Jan 2026 | — |
| 10-Q | Nov 2025 | Sep 2025 |
| 14A | Apr 2025 | — |
AI-extracted key facts from press releases and SEC filings. Significance 1–10.
Exxon Mobil Targets 5.5 MMboed Production and $14B Profit Growth by 2030
- ▸Targeting 5.5 MMboed total production by 2030, up from 4.7 MMboed in 2025
- ▸Projecting 65% of total output from advantaged assets by 2030
- ▸Aiming for $14B increase in profit by 2030 at constant prices
- ▸Upstream earnings projected to achieve 12% CAGR through 2030
- ▸Permian Basin production target set at 2.5 MMboed by 2030
Exxon Mobil Allegedly Promoted Algae Biofuels Despite Internal Warnings of Underperformance
- ▸Exxon Mobil invested $500 million in algae biofuel project
- ▸Internal reports allegedly warned of project underperformance
- ▸Executives continued public promotion despite internal skepticism
ExxonMobil-QatarEnergy JV Starts LNG Production at Texas Facility, Adding 6 MTPA Capacity
- ▸Golden Pass LNG facility begins production at Train 1
- ▸Train 1 adds 6 million metric tons per annum (MTPA) of LNG capacity
- ▸Total project capacity to reach 18 MTPA when fully operational
- ▸ExxonMobil holds 30% interest, entitled to nearly 2 MTPA of output
- ▸First LNG cargo export scheduled for second quarter of 2026
ExxonMobil poised for earnings growth as Brent crude prices surpass $100 per barrel
- ▸Brent crude prices exceeded $100 per barrel amid Middle East geopolitical tensions
- ▸Upstream production projected to reach 4.9M boe/d by 2026
- ▸Long-term upstream production target of 5.5M boe/d by 2030
- ▸Debt-to-capitalization ratio of 11.38% remains below industry average
- ▸ConocoPhillips and EOG Resources identified as peers with low-cost shale assets
Exxon Mobil Shares Up 37% YTD as Energy Sector Outperforms AI Tech Stocks
- ▸XOM shares up 37.47% YTD, hitting record high of $167.48 on March 24
- ▸XOM stock gained 41.13% over the last six months
- ▸NVDA shares down 8.18% YTD amid investor rotation into energy
- ▸Exxon earnings multiple now rivals or exceeds Nvidia's valuation
- ▸Market cap gap remains significant at $4.34T for Nvidia vs $680B for Exxon
Bernstein raises Exxon Mobil price target to $195 from $159, reiterates Outperform
- ▸Bernstein raised XOM price target to $195 from $159
- ▸Analyst reiterated Outperform rating on XOM shares
- ▸Firm updated energy models to reflect current crude prices and crack spreads
- ▸Exxon team currently evaluating oil and gas infrastructure in Venezuela
- ▸Venezuela oil production historically reached 3 million barrels per day
Exxon Mobil Hires Goldman Sachs To Explore Potential New Zealand Asset Divestiture
- ▸Hired Goldman Sachs to explore exit from New Zealand operations
- ▸Potential sale includes terminals and 150+ site retail network
- ▸Estimated deal value range between US$500 million and US$1,000 million
- ▸Strategy focuses capital on advantaged assets in Guyana, Permian, and LNG
- ▸Divestiture follows recent asset sales in Singapore to streamline global footprint
ExxonMobil and Halliburton achieve industry-first fully automated geological well placement in Guyana
- ▸First fully automated geological well placement achieved offshore Guyana
- ▸Integrated closed-loop system improves drilling speed and reservoir contact
- ▸Projected 2028 revenue $338.3B and earnings $39.7B
- ▸Automation serves as efficiency catalyst for Guyana and Permian operations
- ▸Fair value estimates range from $132 to $248 per share
YieldMax XOMO ETF dividend yield hits 30% as underlying XOM shares rally
- ▸XOMO dividend yield reaches 30% annualized
- ▸Share price +21% year-to-date
- ▸Weekly distribution schedule maintained throughout 2026
- ▸Strategy utilizes synthetic covered call positions on Exxon Mobil (XOM)
- ▸Oil prices currently trading above $100 per barrel
Exxon Mobil initiates first US Gulf Coast to Australia fuel supply route
- ▸Delivering 300,000 to 600,000 barrels of gasoline to Australia
- ▸Loading scheduled from Houston between March 13-18
- ▸Freight costs estimated at $6 million per vessel
- ▸Route established following Strait of Hormuz transportation disruptions
- ▸Vessels Largo Eagle and Nord Ventura chartered for delivery